I'm going with the Bulldogs on Saturday despite their struggles they will get a nice boost when A.J. Green returns the lineup on Saturday. To me Auburn is still under rated and I said that in one of my bigger games of the year when I took Arkansas at home over Auburn and Auburn took care of business 44-23. Actually Auburn has only played 3 games on the road and this one being their 4th they lack the experience to win a big time game here on Saturday. They also lost @ LSU 10-31. Georgia played LSU too and lost by just a TD and were out gained by 100 less yards than Auburn.
The strength of schedule that Georgia has faced compared to Auburn is miles away in terms of what kind of defenses Georgia has had to go up against. An average 32nd ranked total defense compared to auburn's 50th ranked. While Auburn was off playing Furman, Ball State, and La Tech in non-conference play Georgia were being men in games against Oklahoma State and Arizona State from the Big 12 and Pac-10. Either way that's just a small sample, but Georgia which has better defensive rankings to begin with has also faced better offenses an average 59th ranked opponent to Auburn's 67th. Along with that Georgia also gets their best player back and home field advantage on their side against a team that has struggled on the road.
Auburn may lead the SEC in yards and second in scoring but most of them came against Ball State and Furman. They really are not as good as a 7-3 team. Take those two wins out and send them to play a Pac-10 and Big 12 team they could be sitting at 6-4 or 5-5 easily. However, I'll take it because Vegas is giving us less than a TD in a game where the better team will win. Not only does Georgia have that on their side they also have the fact that they need a win here to get into a bowl and Auburn does not. Georgia leads the SEC in fewest sacks allowed with just nine this year. So try again Auburn if you think you'll get to Cox pretty much their biggest defensive advantage.
The X-factor! Auburn has struggled in punt returns as they have had five returners and 4 have fumbled. This will be a huge advantage all day for Georgia if they have to kick because they have the nations best Punter and it's not even close. Drew Butler's 49.2 yard average on 40 punts leads the nation by almost 4 yards.
